Survivorship bias
The reason why the lottery is still a thing.
Survivorship bias or survivor bias is a logical error that results from focusing on entities that passed a selection process instead of those who did not. This can lead to incorrect conclusions due to incomplete data.
Basically, you overestimate your chances of winning at something or succeeding in an endeavor because you only look at the winners and the success stories, but you don't look at the losers and the fails.
Survivorship bias or survivor bias is a logical error that results from focusing on entities that passed a selection process instead of those who did not. This can lead to incorrect conclusions due to incomplete data.
Basically, you overestimate your chances of winning at something or succeeding in an endeavor because you only look at the winners and the success stories, but you don't look at the losers and the fails.
Bob: Hey, where's Mike?
Joe: He went to get a payday loan.
Bob: Why? Didn't he get paid like a week ago?
Joe: Yea, but he spent it all on lottery tickets.
Bob: Is he dumb? Doesn't he know that his chances of winning are lower than getting hit by lightning?
Joe: Probably, but he constantly looks at the lottery winners on the TV, he sees all those people winning, and he thought that if all of them can win, maybe he can too.
Bob: But doesn't he know that for every guy on TV who wins, there are thousands who lose?
Joe: But he doesn't see those who lose, now does he? Survivorship bias is a helluva drug.
Joe: He went to get a payday loan.
Bob: Why? Didn't he get paid like a week ago?
Joe: Yea, but he spent it all on lottery tickets.
Bob: Is he dumb? Doesn't he know that his chances of winning are lower than getting hit by lightning?
Joe: Probably, but he constantly looks at the lottery winners on the TV, he sees all those people winning, and he thought that if all of them can win, maybe he can too.
Bob: But doesn't he know that for every guy on TV who wins, there are thousands who lose?
Joe: But he doesn't see those who lose, now does he? Survivorship bias is a helluva drug.